If there is a silver lining to a year as bad as 2009, it is that, in the coming year, our numbers will be measured against those from what most would agree was the worst year for our market in a very long time. As we all sat through our 2009 quarterly business reviews, it was not unusual to look at comparative numbers to 2008 with sharp declines - some topping the 30 percent mark.

The hope for 2010 is that we have nowhere no go but up. Some indicators of improvement have been seen by the channel since the end of the third quarter of 2009. Lead times are increasing as stocks have been depleted, yet capacities have not been increased as a reflection of cautious optimism at best for 2010. Strong fourth quarter POS (point of sale) numbers are also being reported, which should bode well as we enter the New Year.

Hiring has also picked up a bit, but more for temporary workers versus full-time employees. The temp hiring tends to lead increases in full-time staff by three to four months, so we should expect to see some positive impact heading into the second quarter of 2010.

What we are not seeing, at least not yet, is a return to pre-2009 commission rates from those companies that saw fit to decrease rates in response to softening numbers. Many companies took the opportunity to modify commission plans as part of their coping strategies. Various justifications were cited for the changes, but the net effect was less of less for their field sales representatives.

As we head into this new and hopefully better year, it will be very interesting to see how our principal partners react as we build a stronger future together.

What to expect in 2010? Integrators are busy with their key customers that had existing long-term projects or new government funded projects in the security market. Most have let a portion of their installation crews go in 2009 and are working on lower margins, looking for discounts from reps to increase their margins. AV integrators are experiencing lots of competition on projects and lower margins as well. Yet, the press says the economy shows recovery.

What about our industry? What concerns me the most for the beginning of 2010 is the lack of projects at the consultant level. While they have work, major projects are lacking. This means that it will be the second quarter at the earliest, and possibly the third quarter, before the bid market will show signs of life. There is your base-line business and then the large projects that are needed to make quotas, and it is looking like these will be coming later in the year ... I hope.

So, as I see it, we as reps need to make sure that we are having high level meetings with our customers - not just with the sales and purchasing people, but at the management level - to make sure we know their business plans for 2010. Our customers are having to change just like we are. We must know the markets they are going to focus on and where your line card fits into their mission statement. (I will bet you most of your customers have changed from what you knew a year ago.)

Find good partners, and work markets and projects together. This can be a powerful combination. Focus on where you can most effectively sell your lines synergistically. This means you will also have to review how synergistic your lines are. You may have to decide if you wish to be held captive by one or two lines, or you may choose to be more diversified, and if so, how many lines that should be.

From what I am seeing from the Pacific Northwest, we are not out of the woods yet. Good selling.

Biofuel research and development are on the rise. Many projects are funded through universities around the country. Sources of fuel include used vegetable oil, corn and algae.

Municipal expansion projects are strong. Water and wastewater plant expansions are on the rise. Also, upgrades of existing plants are increasing.

Electric utilities are upgrading many of their facilities. Much of the instrumentation is old and in desperate need of replacement. Also, Ethernet-based input and output devices are on the rise.

If any one has any questions, feel free to call me at 602-329-2147 or e-mail me at tomd@vicmyers.com.

Let's bring this a little closer to home and think about how it has affected our industry. First let's look at the "grass roots," our customers. We have seen many struggle and several go out of business. The survivors have had to take a close look at their business models and adapt to the market as it evolves. Most have "regrouped" and are leaner than and more focused than they were even a year ago.

Factories/suppliers overall have felt much of the same pressure in the face of a generally shrinking market. Here we have witnessed the "survival of the fittest." We have seen the demise of a number of names that have been with us for a long time - some through merger, and some simply through closing their doors.

Sales and marketing have not been exempt from changes. There are many facets involved in how goods are brought to market, and they are generally under constant scrutiny. What's the most efficient and effective means of getting a product into the market? This downturn has seen an increase in outsourcing sales functions to reps, quite simply because it is the most economical way to go to market. However, we have seen some (we think short-sighted, knee-jerk reactions) take the position of "we'll do it ourselves and eliminate the commissions to reps." Put the pencil to it, and they would likely find reduced sales at a higher cost per sales dollar.

At the top of this column, I mentioned that some customers have gone away. There is always the need to find new customers. Reps have a gold mine of resources to draw from. Since we represent multiple lines, we can draw on the customer base for one line to glean potential customers for other lines. We should be cross selling constantly in our efforts to "dig deeper" into the potential of each customer. We should be following up leads from factories, picking up contacts from other customers, and mining the resources of the Internet.

We should build a strong internal marketing program that ensures that most of our customers and potential customers hear from us regularly, by e-mail and/or mail, especially with updates, special promotions, price changes, etc. The program should be keyed to ensure that they get information appropriate to their operations and sometimes a tickler on something that just might get their interest.

With all the high tech tools available to us today (and we should use them to the fullest), it's still a people-to-people business, so personal contact should be a vital part of our efforts. We should strive to develop relationships with our major accounts away from (but to always include) business. This could be over lunch, dinner, golf, ball games, fishing, boating, hunting or any other activity that will foster personal relationships that will ultimately provide the "little extra" that personal connections bring to the table.

Now what about 2010? We are optimistic. We chose to NOT participate in the recession, and we marginally accomplished that. We do choose to participate in, and indeed facilitate, growth in 2010. With the combined tools that we all have available, and by focusing on how best to serve our customers and principals, 2010 can and should show positive results.